American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2026 · Emily Moschini、Gajendran Raveendranathan、Ming Xu
中文摘要
在美国,大学辍学风险相当可观。我们提供了新的经验证据,表明关于获得学士学位可能性的信念能够预测大学入学,且这些信念的分布呈现普遍的乐观倾向。我们将这一信念分布纳入一个世代交叠模型,其中大学教育是一项有风险的投资,可通过联邦贷款、助学金、家庭转移支付或劳动收入来融资。随后,我们考察了获得联邦学生贷款的福利影响。我们发现,对于低技能、贫困且持乐观信念的年轻人而言,获得联邦学生贷款可能因其错误的信念而降低福利。(JEL E61, E71, I22, I26, G51)
Abstract
In the United States, college dropout risk is sizable. We provide new empirical evidence that beliefs about the likelihood of earning a bachelor's degree predict college enrollment, and that the distribution of these beliefs exhibits widespread optimism. We incorporate this distribution of beliefs into an overlapping generations model with college as a risky investment that can be financed via federal loans, grants, family transfers, or earnings. We then examine the welfare impact of access to federal student loans. We find that access can reduce welfare for young adults who are low-skilled, poor, and optimistic, due to their mistaken beliefs. (JEL E61, E71, I22, I26, G51)