American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2026 · Simon Mongey、Giovanni L. Violante
中文摘要
我们合并QCEW与JOLTS微观数据, 研究企业招聘强度在机构之间及不同时期的表现。我们发现, 职位空缺填补率的大幅异质性完全可由总雇佣率的差异所解释。我们发展了一个与这些事实相一致的理论, 并在其指引下构建了基于企业的总招聘强度(Aggregate Recruiting Intensity, ARI)指标。ARI具有很强的顺周期性, 主要由劳动力市场疲软时期招聘努力的下降所驱动。我们还利用公开可得的宏观数据提出了一个简单的ARI代理指数。2002年至2019年间, ARI的波动解释了总匹配效率波动的约40%。(JEL D22, E32, J23, J41, J63, M51)
Abstract
We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata to study firm recruiting intensity across establishments and over time. We show that large heterogeneity in vacancy-filling rates is fully accounted for by differences in gross hiring rates. We develop a theory consistent with these facts and, guided by it, construct a firm-based measure of Aggregate Recruiting Intensity (ARI). ARI is strongly procyclical, driven mainly by declines in recruiting efforts in slack labor markets. We also propose a simple proxy ARI index using publicly available macro data. ARI fluctuations explain about 40 percent of aggregate match-efficiency volatility from 2002 to 2019. (JEL D22, E32, J23, J41, J63, M51)