未知水域：海事排放规制的影响
Uncharted Waters: Effects of Maritime Emission Regulation
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · [{"name": "Jamie Hansen-Lewis", "affiliation": ["University of California, Davis"]}, {"name": "Michelle Marcus", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Vanderbilt University"]}]
中文摘要
海运产生的细颗粒物排放量与全球道路交通排放总量的一半相当。我们首次衡量了美国海运排放标准对空气质量、人类健康、种族暴露差异及行为的影响。美国海运排放控制区的设立显著降低了细颗粒物浓度、低出生体重发生率和婴儿死亡率。然而，该政策仅实现了预测细颗粒物减排量的约一半。我们展示的证据与船舶运营者、其他污染者和个人的行为反应相一致，这些反应削弱了政策的影响，但并未被纳入事前模型。
Abstract
Maritime shipping emits as much fine particulate matter as half of global road traffic. We are the first to measure the consequences of US maritime emissions standards on air quality, human health, racial exposure disparities, and behavior. The introduction of US maritime emissions control areas significantly decreased fine particulate matter, low birth weight, and infant mortality. Yet, only about half of the forecasted fine particulate matter abatement was achieved by the policy. We show evidence consistent with behavioral responses among ship operators, other polluters, and individuals that muted the policy's impact, but were not incorporated in ex ante models.