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忽视贝塔系数的福利成本

The Welfare Cost of Ignoring the Beta
Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics · 2024 · Christian Gollier

中文摘要

由于风险厌恶,任何合理的投资估值体系都应对那些对总体风险贡献更大的项目赋予更低的估值。但大多数公共机构所使用的贴现率对其投资项目的风险特征并不敏感。为度量这一规则造成的福利损失,我校准了一个 Lucas 模型,使其既匹配传统金融与宏观矩,又匹配资产风险特征的观测异质性。使用单一贴现率所带来的福利损失,相当于一次永久性的消费削减,其幅度介于15%至45%之间,具体取决于所采用的单一贴现率。

Abstract

Because of risk aversion, any sensible investment valuation system should value less projects that contribute more to aggregate risk. But most public institutions use a discount rate that is insensitive to the risk profile of their investment projects. To measure the welfare loss of this rule, I calibrate a Lucas model that matches the traditional financial and macro moments, together with the observed heterogeneity of assets’ risk profiles. The welfare loss of using a single discount rate is equivalent to a permanent reduction in consumption that lies somewhere between 15% and 45% depending on which single discount rate is used.
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