中文摘要
本文考察1930年《斯穆特-霍利关税法》通过后关税上调对区域经济的影响,该法案将所有应税项目中约三分之一项目的关税税率予以提高。我们为每个地方劳动力市场构建了 Bartik 式的平均关税变化(ATC)指标,用以衡量该劳动力市场受关税政策暴露的程度。通过采用连续型双重差分策略,我们发现受关税政策暴露程度较大的地方劳动力市场的劳动参与率出现了显著上升。这一效应集中于南部以外地区。尽管《斯穆特-霍利关税法》最初提出的目的在于援助陷入困境的农业部门,但我们没有发现证据表明该关税政策显著影响了农村劳动参与率、农作物价格、农地价值或农业机械的使用。
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of tariff increases on regional economies after the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariff rates on approximately one-third of all dutiable items.We construct a Bartik-style measure of the Average Tariff Changes (ATC) for each local labor market, measuring how exposed the labor market is to the tariff policy.By employing a continuous difference-in-differences strategy, we find local labor markets with a larger exposure to the tariff policy experienced a significant increase in the labor force participation rate.The effect is concentrated outside the South.Even though the Smooth-Hawley Tariff Act was initially proposed to help the struggling agricultural sector, we do not find evidence that the tariff policy significantly affected rural labor force participation, crop prices, the value of agricultural lands, or the use of agricultural machinery.