中国污染引致迁移的生产率后果
The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Gaurav Khanna", "affiliation": ["University of California San Diego"]}, {"name": "Wenquan Liang", "affiliation": ["Tongji University"]}, {"name": "Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Yale University"]}, {"name": "Ran Song", "affiliation": ["National University of Singapore"]}]
中文摘要
我们在空间均衡框架下量化了污染对总生产率和福利的影响。研究表明，中国的技能劳动者会迁离污染严重的城市。这一模式在多种实证设定下均较为明显，例如以上风向发电厂或逆温层作为污染的工具变量时。污染改变了技能劳动者与非技能劳动者的空间分布，以及不同地区的工资回报。我们通过估计一个空间均衡模型，量化了这种重新分选所造成的总生产率损失。反事实模拟表明，减少污染通过空间重新分选带来的生产率提升，与清洁空气带来的直接健康收益大致相当。（JEL J24, J31, J61, P25, P28, Q53, R23）
Abstract
We quantify how pollution affects aggregate productivity and welfare in spatial equilibrium. We show that skilled workers in China emigrate away from polluted cities. These patterns are evident under various empirical specifications, such as when instrumenting for pollution using upwind power plants, or thermal inversions. Pollution changes the spatial distribution of skilled and unskilled workers, and wage returns by location. We quantify the loss in aggregate productivity due to this re-sorting by estimating a spatial equilibrium model. Counterfactual simulations show that reducing pollution increases productivity through spatial re-sorting by approximately as much as the direct health benefits of clean air. (JEL J24, J31, J61, P25, P28, Q53, R23)