内部迁移的动态：一个新事实及其启示
The Dynamics of Internal Migration: A New Fact and its Implications
Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · [{"name": "Greg Howard", "affiliation": ["University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign"]}, {"name": "Hansen Shao", "affiliation": ["University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们提出一个新的内部迁移模型, 其基础是持久且空间相关的个体特异性效用。该模型的动机来自数据中一个简单迁移成本模型难以匹配的新事实: t 年期的州际迁移率与 t 的平方根成比例。新模型保持了标准迁移模型的可处理性与灵活性, 但能更好地匹配迁移动态, 包括这一新事实。它具有显著不同的福利含义, 并做出不同的反事实预测, 尤其是在动态调整和长期响应方面。
Abstract
Abstract We propose a new model of internal migration, based on persistent and spatially correlated idiosyncratic utility. The model is motivated by a new fact in the data that simple moving cost models struggle to match: the t-year interstate migration rate is proportional to the square root of t. The new model maintains the tractability and flexibility of standard migration models, but better matches the dynamics of migration, including the new fact. It has substantially different welfare implications and makes different counterfactual predictions, especially in terms of dynamic adjustment and long-run responses.