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货币政策传导与系统性风险之间的权衡

A trade-off between monetary policy transmission and systemic risk
Journal of Monetary Economics · 2026 · Kaiji Chen、Yiqing Xiao、Tao A. Zha

中文摘要

本文研究在一个存款融资渠道存在异质性的银行体系中,银行间融资如何将货币政策传导与系统性风险联系起来。基于中国的银行层面数据,我们表明,宽松货币政策通过银行间市场重新配置流动性:大型银行吸收家庭活期存款并在银行间市场放贷,而小型银行则通过银行间借贷扩张贷款。在经济下行期间,对银行间融资的依赖程度越高,系统性风险越高。为解释这些事实,我们构建了一个包含存款充裕型银行与存款匮乏型银行以及银行间展期风险的结构模型。模型表明,宽松货币政策重新配置流动性并促进放贷,但也提高了挤兑风险。模型揭示了一个宏观审慎权衡:对银行间融资实施监管上限会削弱货币政策传导,但能降低系统性风险。

Abstract

We study how interbank funding links monetary policy transmission to systemic risk in a banking system with heterogeneous access to deposit funding. Using bank-level data from China, we show that monetary policy easing reallocates liquidity through the interbank market: large banks raise household demand deposits and lend in the interbank market, while small banks expand loans through interbank borrowing. During economic downturns, greater reliance on interbank funding is associated with higher systemic risk. To interpret these facts, we build a structural model with deposit-rich and deposit-poor banks and interbank rollover risk. The model shows that monetary policy easing reallocates liquidity and boosts lending, but also raises run risk. It reveals a macroprudential trade-off: a regulatory limit on interbank funding weakens monetary policy transmission but reduces systemic risk.
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