Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Gerald Foong、Stephen J. Machin、Matteo Sandi
中文摘要
本文以一种新颖的方式研究经济激励是否对犯罪有影响,研究对象是窃贼为获取贵重金属而盗窃汽车催化转化器的行为。我们将催化转化器中所含贵重金属价格急剧且幅度可观的变化与新整理的美国犯罪数据相结合。贵重金属价格的骤然快速上涨导致汽车零部件盗窃案大幅增加,而随后的价格下跌与政策应对则迅速扭转了这一态势。由此产生的兴衰动态为价格影响犯罪提供了干净的证据,并且就此类犯罪而言,当地转售基础设施与目标可得性既决定了这一效应的大小,也决定了政策应对的有效性。
Abstract
Whether economic incentives matter for crime is studied in a novel way, from expensive precious metal thefts by thieves stealing catalytic converters from cars. Sharp and sizable variations in the prices of precious metals embedded in converters are combined with newly assembled U.S. crime data. Precipitously fast increases in precious metal prices generated a sizeable rise in auto-part thefts, while subsequent price declines and policy responses quickly reversed this pattern. The resulting boom-and-bust dynamics provide clean evidence that prices affect crime, and for these crimes that local resale infrastructure and target availability shape both the magnitude of this effect and the effectiveness of policy response.