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重复竞赛中的临时排除

Temporary exclusion in repeated contests
Journal of Economic Theory · 2026 · Yaron Azrieli

中文摘要

考虑一群反复竞争奖项的主体,情形如同研究人员每年申请资助。遴选过程中的噪声可能鼓励低质量申请进入,迫使委托方投入大量资源审查申请,并进一步加剧奖项的错误配置。临时排除政策规定,若某主体在上一期获得较低评价,则禁止其在当期提出申请。我们研究此类政策各种变体下的稳态均衡。在排除机制下,拥有低质量申请的主体自我选择退出,从而减少提交数量并缓解奖项的错误配置。与此同时,由于被禁主体失去资格,高质量申请的数量也会减少。我们还表明,排除具有分配效应,能力较高的主体表现出更强的自我选择。

Abstract

Consider a population of agents who repeatedly compete for awards, as in the case of researchers annually applying for grants. Noise in the selection process may encourage entry of low-quality proposals, forcing the principal to commit large resources to reviewing applications and further increasing award misallocation. A temporary exclusion policy prohibits an agent from applying in the current period if they received a low evaluation in the previous. We study the steady-state equilibria under various policies of this type. With exclusion, agents that have low-quality applications self-select to stay out, which reduces the volume of submissions and mitigates award misallocation. At the same time, the volume of high-quality applications is also reduced due to the ineligibility of banned agents. We also show that exclusion has a distributional effect, where higher-ability agents exhibit more self-selection.
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