Journal of Monetary Economics · 2026 · Luis G. Hernández‐Román
中文摘要
新冠疫情导致全球供应链（GSC）出现前所未有的中断，并伴随大规模财政刺激。本文采用代理结构向量自回归（proxy SVAR）模型，考察GSC冲击、美联储的应对及其在两种反事实政策规则下的传导。大规模财政刺激放大了通胀，同时缓冲了GSC冲击带来的下行。从历史看，美联储对价格飙升采取“看穿”态度，并保持宽松立场。第一种反事实政策以稳定通胀为目标，需要更少的宽松，并带来更有利的通胀—产出权衡，这反映出更大的价格灵活性和有限的产出损失。第二种反事实政策在通胀目标制（IT）或平均通胀目标制（AIT）下最小化双重使命损失函数，要求初期更大力度的宽松。相对于IT，AIT意味着更宽松的政策，会产生更持久的通胀，并最终需要紧缩性应对，从而使权衡恶化。
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented disruptions in global supply chains (GSC), coupled with large fiscal stimulus. This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine GSC shocks, the Federal Reserve’s response, and their propagation under two counterfactual policy rules. Large fiscal stimulus amplifies inflation while cushioning the downturn from GSC shocks. Historically, the Fed has looked through price surges and adopted a loose stance. The first counterfactual, which stabilises inflation, entails less accommodation and yields a more favourable inflation-output trade-off, reflecting greater price flexibility and limited output losses. The second, which minimises a dual-mandate loss function under inflation targeting (IT) or average inflation targeting (AIT), calls for greater initial easing. Relative to IT, AIT implies a looser policy that generates more persistent inflation and ultimately requires a contractionary response, worsening the trade-off.