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客户积累、规模报酬与长期趋势

Customer accumulation, returns to scale, and secular trends
Journal of Monetary Economics · 2026 · Andrea Chiavari

中文摘要

本文研究美国经济中不断上升的规模报酬如何导致企业动态性下降、加成率上升以及用于客户获取的支出增加。本文引入一个企业动态模型,该模型具有异质性加成率以及基于定向搜寻的客户积累机制,其中更大的企业凭借更高的规模报酬获得竞争优势。这使得新企业面临的市场可竞争性下降,并导致超级明星企业的崛起。该模型在数量上解释了这些趋势的相当大一部分,且其背后的微观层面机制与经验证据相符。 • 超级明星企业助推长期趋势:企业动态性下降、加成率上升以及客户获取支出的增加。 • 不断上升的规模报酬放大了企业之间的差异,推动超级明星企业的成长。 • 新颖的定向搜寻模型通过规模报酬的上升在数量上解释了这些长期变化的相当大一部分。 • 该模型还与这些长期趋势相关的若干微观层面现象相符。

Abstract

This paper studies how rising returns to scale contributed to declining business dynamism and increasing markups and expenditures devoted to customer acquisition in the U.S. economy. It introduces a firm dynamics model with heterogeneous markups and customer accumulation based on directed search, in which larger firms gain a competitive edge from higher returns to scale. This makes markets less contestable for new firms and leads to the rise of superstar firms. The model quantitatively accounts for a substantial share of these trends, and the underlying micro-level mechanisms align with empirical evidence. • Superstar firms contribute to secular trends: declining business dynamism, increasing markups, and higher spending on customer acquisition. • Rising returns to scale amplify differences among firms, driving the growth of superstar firms. • Novel directed-search model quantitatively explains a substantial fraction of these secular changes via rising returns to scale. • The model also aligns with several micro-level phenomena associated with these secular trends.
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