拥有老练政策制定者的气候联盟
Climate coalitions with sophisticated policy makers
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Sareh Vosooghi", "affiliation": ["VIB-KU Leuven Center for Microbiology"]}, {"name": "Maria Arvaniti", "affiliation": ["Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center", "University of Bologna"]}, {"name": "Frederick van der Ploeg", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research", "University of Oxford", "Centre for Economic Policy Research", "University of Amsterdam"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究老练的政策制定者之间国际气候联盟的形成。这些政策制定者在气候谈判中策略性地预判其成员资格决策的后果，并在决策过程中使用一个经济与气候相结合的综合评估模型。在存在某些类型异质性的情况下，我们从分析上刻画了均衡状态下的联盟数量及其签署国数量。我们模型的特殊结构大幅降低了异质性国家间联盟形成的计算复杂度。我们还针对一个包含可耗竭能源部门和不可耗竭能源部门的校准模型，对可能出现的联盟结果进行了数值考察。与早期基于内部稳定性和外部稳定性的联盟形成方法不同，在均衡中，规模大得多的联盟能够与较小联盟并存并得以维持。因此，老练的政策制定者能够带来更大程度的全球变暖减缓。
Abstract
We study the formation of international climate coalitions among sophisticated policymakers. They strategically predict the consequences of their membership decisions in climate negotiations and use an integrated assessment model of the economy and the climate in their decision-making. We analytically characterise the equilibrium number of coalitions and their number of signatories with certain types of heterogeneity. The special structure of our model drastically reduces the computational complexity of coalition formation with heterogeneous countries. We also numerically investigate possible coalition outcomes for a calibrated model with an exhaustible and an inexhaustible energy sector. In contrast to earlier approaches to coalition formation based on internal and external stability, much larger coalitions can be sustained in equilibrium alongside smaller ones. Sophisticated policymakers thus lead to greater mitigation of global warming.