中文摘要
我们探讨的问题是,货币政策是否会受到气候变化对经济生产率不利影响的波及,若是如此,政策制定者在设计稳定经济周期的政策时是否应当将其纳入考量。为此,我们构建了一个封闭经济的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,其中纳入了与经济相互作用的气候模块。在这一框架中,货币当局选择政府债券的名义利率。模型采用校准至美国经济的参数值进行数值求解。我们的结果对模型扩展和大量敏感性检验均稳健,表明无论冲击经济的是标准经济冲击、气候冲击还是能源价格冲击,最优货币政策的设计都具有不可忽视的含义。
Abstract
We address the question of whether monetary policy is affected by the detrimental impact of climate change on an economy's productivity and, if so, whether policymakers should take it into account when designing policies to stabilize the business cycle. To do this, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which incorporates a climate module that interacts with the economy. In this framework, monetary authorities choose the nominal interest rate on government bonds. The model is solved numerically using parameter values calibrated to the US economy. Our results, which are robust to both extensions and a large number of sensitivity checks, suggest non-trivial implications for the design of optimal monetary policy irrespectively of whether the shocks hitting the economy are standard economic shocks, climate shocks, or shocks to the price of energy.