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从多部门视角看工资停滞

A multisector perspective on wage stagnation
Review of Economic Dynamics · 2024 · Liwa Rachel Ngai、Orhun Sevinç

中文摘要

低技能工人集中在生产率快速增长的部门,但其实际工资却陷入停滞,并落后于总体生产率。我们提供的证据表明多部门视角的重要性。我们机制的核心在于,低技能密集型部门因生产率增长更快而使其相对价格下降。这压低了低技能工人产出相对于其消费篮子的价格,从而抑制了其工资增长;而将低技能工人转移到对其劳动赋予较小权重的部门,则进一步强化了这一效应。我们将两部门模型校准至1980—2010年的美国经济,发现这一机制在数量上具有重要意义。我们的反事实分析揭示,若观察到的总体生产率增长在各部门间均匀分布,低技能实际工资增长本应几乎翻倍。

Abstract

Low-skill workers are concentrated in sectors experiencing fast productivity growth, yet their real wages have stagnated and lagged behind aggregate productivity. We provide evidence demonstrating the importance of a multisector perspective. Central to our mechanism is the decline in the relative price of the low-skill intensive sector driven by its faster productivity growth. This dampens wage gains for low-skill workers by lowering the price of their output relative to their consumption basket, which is further reinforced by shifting them into the sector where less weight is placed on their labor. We calibrate the two-sector model to the 1980–2010 U.S. economy and find this mechanism to be quantitatively important. Our counterfactual analysis reveals that low-skill real wage growth would have nearly doubled if the observed aggregate productivity growth had been evenly distributed across sectors.
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