寻求庇护者与无家可归现象的上升
Asylum seekers and the rise in homelessness
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Bruce D. Meyer", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Angela Wyse", "affiliation": ["Dartmouth College"]}, {"name": "Douglas Williams", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
美国住房与城市发展部（HUD）的数据显示，2022年至2024年间，美国无家可归者收容所的居住人数出现了前所未有的43%增长，扭转了此前十六年的逐步下降趋势。这一增长的四分之三发生在纽约市、芝加哥、马萨诸塞州和丹佛这四个地区——大量新移民涌入当地，其中许多人是在寻求庇护过程中被依法假释入境美国，随后被安置进无家可归者收容系统。利用来自地方政府来源的直接估计和基于人口变化的间接方法，我们估计新移民流入是此次急剧增长的主要驱动因素，可解释收容所无家可归人数两年增长中的约59%–62%。这些估计对将增长主要归因于地方经济和住房市场状况的解释提出挑战，并表明在解读官方无家可归者计数随时间的变化时，须审慎考虑人口变动、收容能力与测量实践等因素。
Abstract
Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) show an unprecedented 43 percent increase in the number of people residing in homeless shelters in the United States between 2022 and 2024, reversing the gradual decline of the preceding sixteen years. Three-quarters of this rise occurred in four localities – New York City, Chicago, Massachusetts, and Denver – where large inflows of new immigrants, many lawfully paroled into the U.S. while seeking asylum, were housed in the homeless shelter system. Using direct estimates from local government sources and indirect methods based on demographic changes, we estimate that new migrant inflows were the primary driver of this dramatic rise, explaining about 59–62 percent of the two-year increase in sheltered homelessness. These estimates challenge narratives that attribute the increase primarily to local economic and housing market conditions and underscore the need to carefully consider population shifts, shelter capacity, and measurement practices when interpreting changes in official homeless counts over time.