人力资本、机会不均与生产率趋同：1800–2100年的全球历史视角
Human capital, unequal opportunities and productivity convergence: A global historical perspective, 1800–2100
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Nitin Bharti", "affiliation": ["The University of Western Australia"]}, {"name": "Amory Gethin", "affiliation": ["World Bank", "World Bank Group"]}, {"name": "Thanasak Mark Jenmana", "affiliation": ["Thammasat University"]}, {"name": "Zhexun Mo", "affiliation": ["Euroquality"]}, {"name": "Thomas Piketty", "affiliation": ["Euroquality"]}, {"name": "Li Yang", "affiliation": ["World Health Organization - Pakistan"]}]
中文摘要
本文构建了一个关于公共支出与收入及其构成（尤其是教育和卫生支出）的新数据库，涵盖1800—2025年期间世界所有地区。人力资本支出大幅增长，但存在巨大且持续的不平等。按购买力平价计算，2025年撒哈拉以南非洲学龄人均公共教育支出约为欧洲和北美观察水平的3%，而1980年为6%，1950年为4%。人力资本支出与生产率增长密切相关，尤其是公共教育支出以及在贫困国家中。基于我们宏观历史数据库估计的回报率约为10%，与微观研究结果一致。最后，我们基于2025—2100年间人力资本支出的示例性轨迹进行了模拟。我们尤其分析了在何种条件下人力资本支出的趋同可能导致到2100年实现全球生产率趋同。
Abstract
This paper constructs a new database on public expenditure and revenue and their components, particularly education and health expenditure, covering all world regions over the 1800–2025 period. Human capital expenditure has grown substantially, but with large and persistent inequalities. Public education expenditure per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 3% of the level observed in Europe and North America in 2025 at purchasing power parity, compared to 6% in 1980 and 4% in 1950. Human capital expenditure strongly correlates with productivity growth, especially for public education and in poor countries. Estimated returns from our macro-historical database are around 10%, in line with micro studies. Finally, we present simulations based on illustrative human capital expenditure trajectories over the 2025–2100 period. In particular, we analyze the conditions under which convergence in human capital expenditure could lead to global productivity convergence by 2100.
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