天气与美国铁路：风险、适应与拥堵

中文摘要

铁路运营已知会受到天气影响，但这种影响的量级尚未在大规模范围内得到估计。我们利用1997年至2022年的事故和绩效数据，考察天气对美国铁路的影响。我们发现，暴露于超过86华氏度（低于5华氏度）的温度下，会导致事故增加9.5%（46%），死亡人数增加57%（222%）。铁路还会适应当地气候（气候较暖地区对高温的敏感性更低），从既往事故中学习经验，并根据天气调整列车速度与运量。由于铁路兼具固定性与网络性质，我们发现，对天气的局部响应会产生延误传播的负外部性。我们的研究结果表明，用于铁路升级的公共资金可能同时改善安全性与运营绩效。

Abstract

Railway operation is known to be affected by the weather, but the magnitude of these effects has not been estimated at scale. We investigate the effect of weather on U.S. railways using accident and performance data spanning 1997–2022. We find that exposure to temperatures over 86 ∘ F (under 5 ∘ F) leads to a 9.5% (46%) increase in accidents and a 57% (222%) increase in deaths. Railroads are also adapted to their local climate (with warmer places exhibiting lower sensitivity to heat), learn from prior accidents, and change train speed and throughput in response to weather. Due to the fixed, network nature of railways, we discover that local responses to weather result in a negative externality of propagating delays. Our findings suggest that public funding for rail upgrades may improve both safety and performance.