工作置换的不平等工作保障疤痕效应

Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Ana Figueiredo", "affiliation": ["IZA - Institute of Labor Economics", "Tinbergen Institute", "Centre for Economic Policy Research", "Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam"]}, {"name": "Olivier Marie", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research", "IZA - Institute of Labor Economics", "Tinbergen Institute", "Centre for Economic Policy Research", "Erasmus University Rotterdam"]}, {"name": "Agnieszka Markiewicz", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research", "Tinbergen Institute", "Erasmus University Rotterdam"]}]

中文摘要

在稳定工作与不稳定、高流动率岗位并存的分割劳动力市场中，工作保障对劳动者的长期结果至关重要。利用荷兰行政数据，我们研究了裁员对工作保障的影响以及手头现金的作用。裁员一年后，永久性就业下降约五分之一，五年后仍然较低，从而放大了工资损失：失去工作保障的被裁员工人，其损失比保留永久合同者高21%。利用一项仅向部分被裁员工人发放一次性转移支付的政策，我们发现获得资格可减轻工作保障损失，并因此减少工资损失。效应在流动性约束较强的劳动者中更大，这与流动性约束确实具有约束力相一致。我们的研究结果表明，工作保障是手头现金降低失业长期成本的关键渠道，这对失业保险的设计具有启示意义。

Abstract

Segmented labor markets, where stable jobs coexist with insecure, high-turnover positions, make job security key to workers’ long-term outcomes. Using Dutch administrative data, we study the impact of displacement on job security and the role of cash-on-hand. One year after displacement, permanent employment falls by about one-fifth and remains lower five years later, amplifying wage losses: displaced workers who lose job security experience losses 21 % larger than those retaining a permanent contract. Exploiting a policy granting lump-sum transfers only to some displaced workers, we find that eligibility attenuates job security losses and, as a result, wage losses. Effects are larger among liquidity-constrained workers, consistent with binding liquidity constraints. Our findings highlight job security as a key channel through which cash-on-hand reduces the long-run costs of job loss, with implications for the design of unemployment insurance.