From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC’s New Employment Objective
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2021 · Brent Bundick、Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
中文摘要
我们分析了稳定就业相对其最高水平的“缺口”而非“偏离”这一货币政策的影响。缺口稳定规则使经济主体预期扩张时期政策将更为宽松,从而推高平均通胀与名义利率。将劳动市场的历史依赖性——劳动搜寻框架的一个特征——纳入模型后,这些效应会被显著放大。在一个包含劳动搜寻摩擦与名义刚性的校准模型中,采用缺口规则使平均通胀与名义政策利率提高90个基点,降低了零利率下限构成有效约束的可能性,并意味着菲利普斯曲线更陡峭且呈非线性。(JEL E24, E31, E43, E52, E58, J64)
Abstract
We analyze the effects of a monetary policy that stabilizes “shortfalls” rather than “deviations” of employment from its maximum level. A shortfalls-stabilization rule leads to expectations of more accommodative policy in expansions, raising average inflation and nominal rates. These effects are significantly amplified by incorporating history dependence in labor markets, a feature in labor-search frameworks. In a calibrated model of labor-search frictions and nominal rigidities, the adoption of a shortfalls rule raises average inflation and nominal policy rates by 90 basis points, reduces the likelihood of a binding zero lower bound, and implies a steeper and nonlinear Phillips curve. (JEL E24, E31, E43, E52, E58, J64)