出口放缓的犯罪后果：来自中国数百万份法院判决文书的证据
The Criminogenic Consequence of Export Slowdown: Evidence from Millions of Court Judgement Documents in China
The Economic Journal · 2025 · [{"name": "Hong Ma", "affiliation": ["Tsinghua University"]}, {"name": "Yu Pan", "affiliation": ["Xiamen University"]}, {"name": "Mingzhi Xu", "affiliation": ["King University", "Peking University"]}]
中文摘要
本文强调了近年来中国出口显著放缓所带来的致罪后果。通过对中国各级法院数百万份裁判文书进行文本分析，我们构建了随城市和时间变化的犯罪率衡量指标。基于 shift-share 工具变量的估计结果显示，出口放缓更为严重的城市，其犯罪率上升幅度也更大。这一效应在制造业专业化地区更为明显，这些地区年轻人、流动人口和辍学者的集中度更高。负向出口冲击还导致就业机会减少、流动人口劳动收入下降，以及心理健康状况恶化。诸如社会稳定支出等其他潜在机制的作用似乎较为有限。基于基准估计的粗略测算表明，各城市犯罪率四分位距差异中约13.1%可由其对出口放缓的暴露程度差异来解释。
Abstract
Abstract This paper highlights the criminogenic consequence of the remarkable slowdown in China’s exports in recent years. By applying textual analysis to millions of judgement documents from all levels of courts in China, we construct measures of crime rates that vary across cities over time. Our estimations, using a shift-share instrumental variable, reveal a higher increase in crime rates in cities that experience a more severe export slowdown. The effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing-specialising regions, where there is a higher concentration of young people, migrants and school dropouts. Negative export shocks also lead to reduced job opportunities, decreased labour earnings for migrants and worsened psychological health. Alternative mechanisms, such as spending on social stability, appear to play a minor role. A back-of-the-envelope calculation based on our baseline estimation suggests that approximately 13.1% of the interquartile difference in crime rates across cities can be explained by differences in their exposure to the export slowdown.