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微分博弈中的马尔可夫完美均衡——在气候政策中的应用

Markov-Perfect Equilibria in Differential Games—With an Application to Climate Policy
Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · Niko Jaakkola、Florian O O Wagener

中文摘要

我们分析微分博弈中的不连续马尔可夫策略。最佳反应对应将几乎所有对手策略组合唯一地映射回策略空间。由此,我们使一大类微分博弈中的马尔可夫完美均衡具有良好性质,解决了一个长期悬而未决的开放问题。我们给出了一个易于应用的、关于最佳反应与马尔可夫完美纳什均衡的充分必要条件。我们在气候变化非合作减排的一个典型模型中展示了该方法。我们的方法给出了新颖且具有重要经济意义的结果:我们求得对称马尔可夫完美均衡的完整集合,并表明相较于既有文献所关注的均衡,最优均衡能够带来重大的福利改善。国际气候谈判可被视为围绕良好均衡进行协调,而非围绕动态囚徒困境中有限的可得剩余进行讨价还价。

Abstract

Abstract We analyse discontinuous Markovian strategies for differential games. The best response correspondence uniquely maps almost all profiles of opponents’ strategies back to the strategy space. We thus make Markov-perfect equilibria in a wide class of differential games well-behaved, resolving a long-standing open problem. We provide a readily applicable necessary and sufficient condition for best responses and Markov-perfect Nash equilibria. We demonstrate our methods in a canonical model of non-cooperative mitigation of climate change. Our approach provides novel, economically important results: we obtain the entire set of symmetric Markov-perfect equilibria and demonstrate that the best equilibria can yield a major welfare improvement over the equilibrium which previous literature has focused on. International climate negotiations can be seen as being about coordination on good equilibria, rather than about bargaining over the limited surplus available in a dynamic prisoner’s dilemma.
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