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消费者流动性、线下与线上区域贸易:来自高频交易数据的证据

Consumer Mobility, Offline and Online Regional Trade: Evidence From High‐Frequency Transaction Data
International Economic Review · 2025 · David Bounie、Youssouf Camara、John W. Galbraith

中文摘要

从线下向线上购买的转变正在重塑贸易格局:在数字交易中已观察到距离的效应有所减弱。本研究以前所未有的规模和细粒度分析这些动态,使用基于数十亿条带有地理位置的法国银行卡交易估计的区际引力模型。我们使用在线上和线下渠道均有经营、且区域识别明确的匹配商户样本,比较不同渠道间的购买行为。我们估计,线上交易中距离的重要性平均比线下低35%,但对于耐用品,线上低69%;非耐用品线上低43%;对于服务,线上与线下之间的差异可忽略不计。

Abstract

ABSTRACT The shift from offline to online purchasing is reshaping trade patterns: a weaker effect of distance has been observed in digital transactions. This study analyzes these dynamics at an unprecedented scale and granularity, using interregional gravity models estimated from billions of geolocated French card transactions. Using a matched sample of merchants active in both online and offline channels, with unambiguous regional identification, we compare purchasing behavior across channels. We estimate that distance matters 35% less online than offline on average, but for durables, 69% lower online; 43% lower online for nondurables; a negligible online–offline difference is found for services.
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