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像中国一样出口:生产率、市场需求与劳动力摩擦

Exporting Like China: Productivity, Market Demand, and Labor Frictions
International Economic Review · 2025 · Russell Cooper、Guan Gong、Guanliang Hu、Ping Yan

中文摘要

本文研究中国企业的出口状态,并区分国有控股企业与私人控股企业。我们按所有制类型估计了出口决策的动态模型。估计出的模型刻画了不同所有制类型之间的独特差异,包括出口企业与非出口企业之间的生产率差距、国内销售与国外销售的相互作用、出口份额的偏态分布,以及就业对出口状态变化的动态反应。我们的分析凸显了需求冲击与劳动调整成本在塑造出口状态动态中的关键作用,对私人控股企业而言尤其如此。我们运用估计出的模型研究关税与不确定性。

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper studies Chinese firms' export status, distinguishing state and privately controlled enterprises. A dynamic model of export decisions is estimated by ownership types. The estimated models capture distinctive differences between ownership types including the productivity gap between exporters and nonexporters, the interaction between domestic and foreign sales, the skewed distribution of export shares, and the dynamic response of employment to changes in export status. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of demand shocks and labor adjustment costs in shaping the dynamics of export status, especially for privately controlled enterprises. The estimated model is used to study tariffs and uncertainty.
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