贸易暴露能否解释反全球化投票？

We study the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France over the period 1988–2022. We construct a novel measure of anti-globalization voting that combines the policy positions expressed in presidential candidates’ manifestos with local electoral outcomes. We find that greater exposure to import competition increases anti-globalization voting, whereas export exposure reduces it, consistent with their contrasting effects on French local employment. Immigration also increases anti-globalization voting. Finally, the political effects of imports depend on their composition. While imports of final goods increase anti-globalization voting, imports of intermediate goods reduce support for anti-globalization ideas. This asymmetric effect is consistent with the fact that final goods imports generate employment losses in regions specialized in import-competing industries, whereas intermediate goods imports tend to support domestic production and employment within global value chains.