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融资约束、部门异质性与投资的周期性

Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2024 · Cooper Howes

中文摘要

尽管在紧缩性货币政策冲击下,大多数部门的投资会下降,但制造业部门的投资却会增加。利用手工数字化的美国全部制造业企业的总收入和资产负债表数据,我表明这一增长是由最不可能受到融资约束的企业类型所驱动的。一个包含金融摩擦的两部门新凯恩斯模型能够拟合这些事实:不受约束的企业利用了货币紧缩导致的资本使用成本下降,而受约束的企业则被迫削减投资。在模型中移除企业融资约束,会使制造业产出对货币冲击的反应减弱约25%。

Abstract

Abstract While investment in most sectors declines in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, investment in the manufacturing sector increases. Using manually digitized aggregate income and balance sheet data for the universe of US manufacturing firms, I show that this increase is driven by the types of firms which are least likely to be financially constrained. A two-sector New Keynesian model with financial frictions can match these facts; unconstrained firms take advantage of the decline in the user cost of capital caused by the monetary contraction, while constrained firms are forced to cut back. Removing firm financial constraints in the model dampens the response of manufacturing output to monetary shocks by about 25%.
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