自我评估中的启发法：来自中国高校集中录取系统的证据
Heuristics in Self-Evaluation: Evidence from the Centralized College Admission System in China
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2023 · [{"name": "Hongbin Li", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Xinyao Qiu", "affiliation": ["University of Hong Kong", "Stanford University"]}]
中文摘要
摘要：利用中国普通高等学校招生全国统一考试的行政数据，我们研究了左位数偏差如何影响学生的高考志愿填报。我们发现，学生的录取结果在十分阈值处存在强烈的不连续性：分数略低于10的整数倍的学生会做出更保守的志愿填报选择，从而进入选拔性较低的高校和专业；相比之下，分数达到或略高于10的整数倍的学生目标定得更高、实际录取结果也更好，但同时面临更大的志愿滑档风险。这一不连续性表明，尽管存在教育和劳动力市场方面的后果，学生基于考试分数的自我评价仍然受到信息处理启发式的影响。
Abstract
Abstract Using administrative data on the Chinese National College Entrance Examination, we study how left-digit bias affects college applications. We find strong discontinuities in students’ admission outcomes at ten-point thresholds. Students with scores just below multiples of 10 make more conservative college application choices that place them into less selective colleges and majors. In contrast, students who score at or just above multiples of 10 aim at and achieve higher but are at greater risk of overshooting. The discontinuity reveals that despite the educational and labor market consequences, students’ self-evaluation based on exam scores is subject to information-processing heuristics.