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财产税的赢家与输家

Winners and losers from property taxation
Quantitative Economics · 2025 · Kasper Kragh Balke、Markus Karlman、Karin Kinnerud

中文摘要

本文研究住房资本的最优课税问题。为此,我们采用一个校准于美国经济的生命周期模型,其中家庭的资产持有量与劳动生产率各不相同,且税收改革会引起房价、租金、利率与工资的变动。我们发现,长期最优财产税远高于当今水平,部分原因在于住房的需求与供给均相对缺乏弹性。更高的财产税还会降低房价,并引起资源从住房向企业资本的再配置,进而降低利率、提高工资。这些均衡效应有助于改善整个生命周期内的消费平滑。然而,由于房价下跌且大多数家庭拥有自有住房,现行多数家庭在实施更高财产税后将遭受可观的福利损失。因此,在考虑转型动态的情况下,更高的财产税是否可行或更为可取并不明确。

Abstract

This paper considers optimal taxation of housing capital. To this end, we employ a life‐cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy, where asset holdings and labor productivity vary across households, and tax reforms lead to changes in house and rental prices, interest rates, and wages. We find that the optimal property tax in the long run is considerably higher than today, partly due to the relatively inelastic demand and supply of housing. A higher property tax also reduces house prices and causes a reallocation from housing to business capital, which in turn decreases interest rates and increases wages. These equilibrium effects allow for an improved consumption smoothing over the life cycle. However, most current households would incur substantial welfare losses from an implementation of a higher property tax, since house prices fall, and a majority own their home. Hence, when accounting for transitional dynamics, it is not clear that a higher property tax is feasible or preferred.
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