Quantitative Economics · 2025 · Kaiji Chen、Qing Wang、Tong Wen Xu、Tao A. Zha
中文摘要
我们研究中国的贷款价值比（loan-to-value, LTV）政策如何影响抵押贷款市场与家庭消费，重点关注2014年第四季度至2016年第三季度针对二套房LTV上限的一次突然且前所未有的放松。我们利用一家中国主要商业银行逾三百万条贷款层面记录的丰富数据集，辅以有关城镇家庭财务的调查数据，分析这一政策转变如何在各家庭群体层面及总量层面影响抵押贷款需求、房价与消费。我们发现，这项旨在促进住房投资的LTV放松引发了抵押贷款繁荣，尤以首套房抵押贷款为甚，同时挤出了中年、高学历家庭的消费。受这些发现启发，我们构建并校准了一个动态均衡模型，区分提供住房服务的首套房与用作投资品的二套房。当二套房的LTV上限放松时，此类房产的需求激增，推高房价与资本利得。与既有文献不同，我们识别出一条住房投资渠道：这些资本利得使现有房主——尤其是中年与高收入家庭——得以换购更大的自住住房。房价上涨继而推动进一步的需求与抵押贷款借款，放大了LTV政策变动的影响，并降低了这些家庭的非住房消费。
Abstract
We study how China's loan‐to‐value (LTV) policy affects mortgage markets and household consumption, focusing on an abrupt and unprecedented relaxation in LTV limits for secondary houses from 2014Q4 to 2016Q3. Using a rich dataset of over three million loan‐level records from a major Chinese commercial bank, supplemented by survey data on urban household finances, we analyze how this policy shift influenced mortgage demand, house prices, and consumption across household groups and at the aggregate level. We find that this LTV relaxation, aimed at promoting housing investments, spurred a mortgage boom, especially in primary home mortgages, while crowding out household consumption among middle‐aged, high‐education households. Motivated by these findings, we develop and calibrate a dynamic equilibrium model that distinguishes between primary homes for housing services and secondary houses for investment. When the LTV limit for secondary houses is relaxed, demand for these properties surges, increasing house prices and capital gains. Unlike prior literature, we identify a housing investment channel in which these capital gains enable existing homeowners—particularly middle‐aged and high‐income households—to upsize their primary residences. Rising house prices then drive further demand and mortgage borrowing, amplifying the effects of the LTV policy change and reducing these households' nonhousing consumption.