Quantitative Economics · 2025 · Xiaoshan Chen、Spyridon Lazarakis、Petros Varthalitis
中文摘要
本文构建了一个针对欧元区核心国与外围国的世界经济HANK模型，该模型刻画了欧元区跨国与国内异质性的关键特征，用以研究债务目标改革。我们表明，在现行欧元区制度安排下，财政整顿在国家之间和国家内部都代价高昂，尤其影响外围国家家庭。将欧元区债务目标调整至更接近其历史水平，可以显著缓解这些福利损失，并使外围国家家庭更能承受财政整顿。令人意外的是，核心国为便利外围国整顿而实施的财政扩张，并不会使外围国家大多数家庭受益，因为外围国生产商品的国际竞争力下降会降低其家庭收入与消费。潜在的跨国财政外部性可能增强国家层面财政改革的收益，对财富水平较低的家庭尤其如此。最后，我们发现，使福利最大化的欧元区整体债务目标介于各成员国的当前债务产出比之间。
Abstract
This paper develops a world economy HANK model for the Euro Area (EA) Core and Periphery, which captures key features of EA cross‐ and within‐country heterogeneity, to study debt target reforms. We show that fiscal consolidation under the current EA institutional arrangements is quite costly across and within countries, particularly affecting households in the Periphery. Reforming the EA debt targets closer to their historical values can significantly mitigate these welfare losses and make fiscal consolidation more affordable for households in the Periphery. Surprisingly, Core's fiscal expansion to facilitate Periphery's consolidation would not benefit most households in the Periphery, as it would reduce its household income and consumption due to decreased international competitiveness of periphery produced goods. Potential cross‐country fiscal externalities could increase the benefits of national fiscal reforms, especially for poor‐wealth households. Finally, we find that the welfare‐maximizing EA‐wide debt target lies between the member states' current debt‐to‐output ratios.