China's Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · Lawrence H. Goulder、Xianling Long、Chenfei Qu、Da Zhang
中文摘要
中国的二氧化碳排放交易体系是全球最大的此类体系，旨在大幅减少二氧化碳排放。该体系是一种可交易绩效标准（tradable performance standard, TPS），有别于总量控制与交易（cap and trade, C&T）。我们提供了一个动态一般均衡评估，独特地考虑了影响政策成本和分配效应的中国制度与财政特征。主要发现：TPS的环境收益达到其成本的五倍或以上。与财政体系的互动会缩小或消除TPS相对于C&T的成本劣势。引入拍卖作为配额供给的补充来源可使成本降低30%。
Abstract
China's CO2 emissions trading system, the world's largest, aims to significantly reduce CO2 emissions. The system is a tradable performance standard (TPS), differing from cap and trade (C&T). We provide a dynamic general equilibrium assessment that uniquely considers institutional and fiscal features of China that affect policy costs and distributional impacts. Key findings: The TPS's environmental benefits exceed its costs by a factor of five or more. Interactions with the fiscal system reduce or eliminate the TPS's cost disadvantage relative to C&T. Introducing auctioning as a complementary source of allowance supply can reduce costs by 30 percent.