American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · Chad P. Bown、Paola Conconi、Aksel Erbahar、Lorenzo Trimarchi
中文摘要
我们研究供应链上贸易保护的影响。我们聚焦于针对中国的临时性贸易壁垒, 在过去的几十年里, 中国一直是美国贸易保护的主要对象。为应对内生性问题, 我们采用工具变量策略, 利用总统任期更替中摇摆州身份的变化以及各行业对这些政治冲击的异质性暴露。我们发现, 出于政治动机的贸易保护产生了赢家与输家: 它促进了受保护行业的就业增长, 但抑制了下游行业的就业增长。我们的估计表明, 其对美国就业的总体影响为负。
Abstract
We study the effects of trade protection along supply chains. We focus on temporary trade barriers against China, which has been the main target of US trade protection during the last decades. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable strategy, exploiting changes in the identity of swing states across presidential terms and heterogeneous exposure to these political shocks across industries. We find that politically motivated trade protection generates winners and losers: It fosters employment growth in protected industries but hampers employment growth in downstream industries. Our estimates imply a negative overall impact on US jobs.