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研发税收激励有多大成效?——微观与宏观证据的调和

How Effective Are R&D Tax Incentives? Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · Silvia Appelt、Matěj Bajgar、Chiara Criscuolo、Fernando Galindo-Rueda

中文摘要

近期的企业层面研究发现,研发税收激励在刺激企业研发投资方面的效果远高于总体分析所显示的水平。基于对 19 个 OECD 国家官方研发调查与税收减免行政微观数据的分布式分析,我们表明有两个因素可以调和这些相互矛盾的结果。第一,大多数国家研发税收激励的采用率有限,使得总体研究低估了研发税收激励的有效性。其次,研发税收激励对大型企业和研发密集型企业的效果(要)低得多,而这类企业在从事研发的企业中所占份额很小,却占总体研发税收减免的大部分。

Abstract

Recent firm-level studies find R&D tax incentives to be much more effective at stimulating firms' R&D investment than aggregate analyses suggest. Based on a distributed analysis of official R&D survey and administrative tax relief microdata for 19 OECD countries, we show that two factors can reconcile these contrasting results. First, the limited uptake of R&D tax incentives in most countries makes aggregate studies underestimate the effectiveness of R&D tax incentives. Secondly, R&D tax incentives are (much) less effective for large and R&D-intensive firms, which account for a small share of R&D-performing firms but most aggregate R&D tax relief.
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