高中的动态努力选择：学术轨道的成本与收益
Dynamic Effort Choice in High School: Costs and Benefits of an Academic Track
Journal of Labor Economics · 2023 · [{"name": "Olivier De Groote", "affiliation": ["Toulouse School of Economics", "Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München", "École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique", "University of Alicante", "University of Cambridge", "University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill", "McGill University", "Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}]
中文摘要
我使用一个包含学习项目选择与不可观测努力的动态离散选择模型，研究高中分流政策。我利用比利时法兰德斯大区的数据估计该模型，并对一项鼓励学业表现欠佳的学生转向学术导向较弱项目的政策进行了事前评估。该政策使留级率降低了三分之一，辍学率降低了11%。尽管该政策降低了大学入学率，但对大学毕业率的影响较小且统计上不显著。我还表明，对努力进行建模十分重要——否则，我们将预测到留级率和辍学率的降幅更小，而大学入学率和毕业率的降幅更大。
Abstract
I investigate high school tracking policies using a dynamic discrete choice model of study programs and unobserved effort. I estimate the model using data from Flanders (Belgium) and perform an ex-ante evaluation of a policy that encourages underperforming students to switch to less academically ori-ented programs. This reduces grade retention by a third and dropout by 11%. Although it decreases college enrollment, the decrease in college graduation is small and insignificant. I also show that modeling effort is important, otherwise we would predict smaller decreases in grade retention and dropout and larger decreases in college enrollment and graduation.
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