Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Anna Maria Mayda、Lindsay Oldenski、Walter Steingress
中文摘要
本文研究美国企业的离岸外包对美国投票模式的影响。将县级投票数据与行业层面离岸外包数据相结合,我们考察在垂直导向行业中,美国跨国公司海外分支机构就业的增加是否与总统、众议院和参议院选举中执政党候选人得票份额的增加相关。我们发现,离岸外包导致工人受教育程度更高的县执政党得票份额上升,而在制造业工人占比更高以及从事更易转移到海外的职业的工人占比更高的县,执政党得票份额下降。这些结果与关于离岸外包的劳动力市场文献相一致,该文献表明离岸外包会依据技能和职业任务对工人就业产生异质性影响。这表明,选民通过奖励或惩罚执政党候选人来回应离岸外包的经济效应。
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of offshoring by US firms on voting patterns in the US. Using county-level voting data combined with industry-level offshoring data, we ask whether an increase in employment at foreign affiliates of US multinationals in vertically oriented industries is associated with an increase in the vote share for the incumbent party candidate in Presidential, House, and Senate elections. We find that offshoring leads to an increase in the incumbent vote share for counties with more educated workers, and a decrease for counties with higher shares of workers in the manufacturing sector and in occupations that are more easily relocated abroad. These results are consistent with the labor market literature on offshoring, which shows that offshoring has heterogeneous effects on workers’ employment based on skill and occupational tasks. This suggests that voters respond to the economic effects of offshoring by rewarding or punishing incumbent party candidates.