State capacity and wildfire mitigation: Evidence from state-led forest conservation in China
中文摘要
本文提供了关于公共森林管理中国家主导的制度性改革如何影响野火风险的因果证据。我们考察中国的一项改革，该改革将国有林场重组为非营利性公共机构，将其资金来源转由政府预算承担，并加强采伐限制的执法。基于历史林场—乡镇边界的双重差分设计，我们发现该改革使森林火灾发生率降低约 10%。效应在地方政治换届期间达到峰值，且在位于地方辖区上风向的地区更强，表明政治激励与问责制塑造了政策实施。森林火灾的下降在位于财政能力更强、提供更多补贴的县的林场中更大，在采伐限制合规程度更高的林场中也更大，凸显公共融资和监管执法是关键渠道。我们还观察到对相邻林地的适度正向溢出效应。在考虑附近控制地区的溢出效应后，国有林场内森林火灾的降幅超过 20%。一项简单的成本效益分析显示，健康收益是货币化收益的主要来源，且在经溢出调整的估计下收益超过成本。我们的发现表明，国家能力如何通过公共融资和监管权力被调动起来，在公共管理的森林中产生切实的环境和社会收益。
Abstract
This paper provides causal evidence on how state-led institutional reform in public forest management affects wildfire risk. We examine a reform in China that restructures state-owned forest farms as nonprofit public institutions, shifting their funding to government budgets and tightening enforcement of logging restrictions. Using a difference-in-differences design based on historical farm-town boundaries, we find that the reform lowers forest-fire incidence by roughly 10%. The effects peak during local political turnover and are stronger in areas upwind of local jurisdictions, suggesting that political incentives and accountability shape implementation. Fire declines are larger among farms located in counties with stronger fiscal capacity, which provide greater subsidies, and among farms with higher compliance with logging restrictions, highlighting public financing and regulatory enforcement as key channels. We also observe modest positive spillovers into adjacent woodlands. Accounting for spillover effects in nearby control areas implies a reduction of over 20% in forest fires within state forest farms. A simple cost-benefit analysis shows that health benefits are the main source of monetized gains and that benefits exceed costs under the spillover-adjusted estimate. Our findings illustrate how state capacity can be mobilized through public financing and regulatory authority to generate tangible environmental and social gains in publicly managed forests.