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缺失父亲

Fatherless
Journal of Human Resources · 2023 · Yannick Dupraz、Andreas Ferrara

中文摘要

我们估计了在美国内战中失去父亲对子女长期社会经济结果的因果效应。通过将220万名联邦军士兵的军事记录与1860年美国人口普查数据相链接,我们在1880年和1900年人口普查中追踪了这些士兵的儿子。阵亡士兵的儿子职业收入得分更低,相较于从事低技能工作或务农,他们从事高技能或半技能工作的可能性更低。这些效应至少持续到1900年人口普查。我们的结果对以父亲所在团的死亡率作为父亲死亡的工具变量是稳健的;我们认为,该死亡率是由未考虑士兵社会出身的军事战略所驱动的。战前家庭财富是一个强有力的缓解因素:对于财富分布最高四分位的家庭,失去父亲没有影响。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> We estimate the causal effect of losing a father in the U.S. Civil War on children’s long-run socioeconomic outcomes. Linking military records from the 2.2 million Union Army soldiers with the 1860 U.S. population census, we track soldiers’ sons into the 1880 and 1900 census. Sons of soldiers who died had lower occupational income scores and were less likely to work in a high- or semi-skilled job as opposed to being low-skilled or farmers. These effects persisted at least until the 1900 census. Our results are robust to instrumenting paternal death with the mortality rate of the father’s regiment, which we argue was driven by military strategy that did not take into account the social origins of soldiers. Pre-war family wealth is a strong mitigating factor: there is no effect of losing a father in the top quartile of the wealth distribution.
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