页岩革命的一般均衡效应

The shale revolution is gradually transforming the industrial structure of the United States. This study quantifies these changes in a model of the Dutch disease with productivity linkages across industries, allowing productivity gains in one sector to spill over to others. For 2020, I find that the shale revolution raised US relative wages (a measure of the country’s real exchange rate) by around 1.54%, whereas Mexican and Canadian wages declined by 0.82% and 1.85%, respectively. The shale revolution allowed countries like China, Taiwan, and Great Britain to increase their US exports considerably, while oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Canada, Peru, and Colombia saw their US exports decline. Within the United States, some industries such as the automobile industry and the manufacturing of basic metals (e.g., iron and steel) profit from the shale revolution but other industries (e.g., chemicals, computers, and finance and insurance services) see a considerable drop in revenue.