American Economic Journal: Microeconomics · 2026 · Piotr Evdokimov、Umberto Garfagnini
中文摘要
个体会认为随着时间推移自己与他人的看法更为一致吗？本文在包含公共信息的序贯实验中，探讨个体如何感知他人的信念更新行为以及由此产生的分歧。我们发现，感知分歧随认知能力不同而存在持续差距。认知能力越高，感知到的分歧越小，尽管平均而言被试低估了实际分歧的程度。关于伙伴认知能力的信息仅在伙伴测试得分较低时影响感知分歧。我们的发现凸显了过度自信与认知投射在塑造这些感知中的作用。（JEL C91, D12, D83, D91）
Abstract
Do agents believe they agree more with others over time? This paper explores how individuals perceive the belief-updating behavior of others and the resulting disagreement in a sequential experiment with public information. We uncover a persistent gap in the perception of disagreement as a function of cognitive ability. Higher cognitive ability correlates with less perceived disagreement, although the average subject underestimates the extent of actual disagreement. Information about a partner's cognitive ability only impacts perceived disagreement when the partner has a low test score. Our findings highlight the roles of overconfidence and cognitive projection in shaping these perceptions. (JEL C91, D12, D83, D91)