轻触式毕业模式能否改善生计结果？来自埃塞俄比亚的证据

Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Jessica Leight", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Daniel Gilligan", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Mélissa Hidrobo", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Harold Alderman", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Michael Mulford", "affiliation": ["Northwestern University"]}]

中文摘要

近年来，越来越多的文献考察了多层面、高强度毕业模型的潜力，此类模型旨在应对制约家庭脱贫的多重障碍。本文提供来自埃塞俄比亚一项较轻触式（强度较低）毕业模型随机试验的新证据。主要实验组包括：一项捆绑式干预，包含一笔按购买力平价（PPP）计价为374美元的转移支付（随机分配为现金或等值家禽）、培训以及储蓄小组；一项仅包含培训和储蓄小组的较简单干预；以及一个对照组。我们发现，基线三年后，包含转移支付的干预提高了储蓄，并增加了来自牲畜的现金收入，但消费和食品安全均未发生变化，资产积累的证据也非常有限；无论转移支付形式为现金还是家禽，上述效应总体一致。仅提供培训和储蓄小组的干预效应则十分有限。

Abstract

In recent years, a growing literature has examined the potential of multifaceted, intensive graduation models that address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty. In this paper, we present new evidence from a randomized trial of a lighter-touch (less intensive) graduation model implemented in Ethiopia. The primary experimental arms are a bundled intervention including a transfer valued at PPP $374 (randomly assigned to be cash or equivalent value in poultry), training, and savings groups; a simpler intervention including training and savings groups only; and a control arm. We find that three years post-baseline, the intervention inclusive of the transfer leads to increases in savings and cash income from livestock, though there is no shift in consumption or food security and very little evidence of asset accumulation; these effects are generally consistent regardless of the modality of the transfer (cash versus poultry). The effects of training and savings groups alone are minimal.