惩治金融犯罪：监禁判决对被告及其同事的影响
Punishing Financial Crimes: The Impact of Prison Sentences on Defendants and Their Colleagues
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · [{"name": "Kristiina Huttunen", "affiliation": ["VATT Institute for Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Martti Kaila", "affiliation": ["University of Glasgow"]}, {"name": "David C Macdonald", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus"]}, {"name": "Emily Nix", "affiliation": ["Marshall B. Ketchum University"]}]
中文摘要
金融犯罪给社会带来高昂成本，但其受到的惩罚比其他非暴力犯罪更轻。我们考察监禁判决是否能减少金融犯罪。利用芬兰法官的随机分配来识别因果效应，我们发现，监禁判决使被告在判决后三年内的再犯概率降低 42.9 个百分点。鉴于既有证据表明金融不当行为存在“传染”，我们还考察了对同事的溢出效应。监禁判决使金融犯罪被告的同事实施犯罪的可能性降低 27 个百分点，这表明更严厉的惩罚具有更广泛的威慑效应，但这一效应仅存在于欺诈案件中。最后，我们表明金融犯罪并非没有受害者的犯罪。（JEL K14, K22, K41, K42）
Abstract
Financial crimes are costly to society but less severely punished than other nonviolent crimes. We investigate whether prison sentences reduce financial crimes. Using random assignment of judges in Finland to identify causal impacts, we find a prison sentence reduces defendant reoffending by 42.9 percentage points three years postsentencing. Given prior evidence of financial misconduct “contagion,” we also explore spillovers on colleagues. A prison sentence reduces the likelihood that a financial crime defendant’s colleagues commit crimes by 27 percentage points, suggesting broader deterrent effects of harsher punishments, but only for fraud cases. Last, we show financial crimes are not victimless crimes. (JEL K14, K22, K41, K42)