内生性迁移限制与中国的人口老龄化
Endogenous migration restrictions and population aging in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Chen Zhu", "affiliation": ["Southwest University of Political Science & Law"]}, {"name": "Jipeng Zhang", "affiliation": ["Shandong University"]}, {"name": "Kang Zhou", "affiliation": ["Zhejiang University"]}]
中文摘要
本文研究中国地方政府如何通过户籍改革降低迁移限制，以应对人口结构变化。我们将数据驱动方法与官方政策文件的文本分析相结合，构建了一项新颖的改革强度测度。通过量化改革前迁移人口中按照最新落户标准有资格获得当地城市户籍的比例，该测度捕捉了嵌入地方落户政策中的内生约束。基于这一测度，我们估计了地方人口老龄化对户籍政策变化的影响。研究发现，老龄化程度较高的城市更可能降低迁移人口的落户门槛，且该效应在生育率较低的地级市中更强。机制分析进一步表明，人口老龄化是推动劳动力市场放松管制和城市发展的重要驱动因素。
Abstract
This paper investigates how local governments in China respond to demographic shifts by reducing migration restrictions through Hukou reform. We construct a novel measure of reform intensity by combining a data-driven approach with textual analysis of official policy documents. By quantifying the share of pre-reform migrants who would qualify for local urban Hukou under the most recent settlement criteria, our measure captures the endogenous constraints embedded in local settlement policies. Using this measure, we estimate the impact of local population aging on Hukou policy changes. We find that cities with higher aging levels are more likely to lower thresholds for migrant settlement, with stronger effects in prefectures facing lower fertility rates. Mechanism analysis further highlights the role of population aging as a driver of labor market deregulation and urban development.