双边劳动协议会增加迁移吗？来自1960年至2020年的全球证据
Do bilateral labor agreements increase migration? Global evidence from 1960 to 2020
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Maheshwor Shrestha", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Heidi Kaila", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Narcisse Cha’ngom", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Samik Adhikari", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}]
中文摘要
本文使用1960年至2020年间覆盖所有国家对的双边劳工协议（BLAs）与移民综合数据，估计BLAs对移民的影响。在纳入丰富固定效应的首选设定下，BLAs使十年内的移民规模增加68%（即0.52个对数点）。在常规通道——即样本各时期至少有10名移民的通道——中，移民增加21%（即0.19个对数点）。涉及低收入和中低收入来源国的BLAs效应更强，但对非洲来源国而言效应可忽略不计，这可能源于其实施层面的制度能力较弱。我们的估计表明，移民收入的增加带来了可观的福利收益。低收入和中低收入国家若与常规目的国签订BLA，每年可获益1.16亿美元。若撒哈拉以南非洲国家能产生类似效应，其福利收益每年可高达5400万美元。
Abstract
We use comprehensive data on bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) and migration across all country pairs from 1960 to 2020 to estimate the impact of BLAs on migration. In our preferred specification, which includes a rich set of fixed effects, BLAs increase migration by 68 percent (or 0.52 log points) within a decade. Among regular corridors—those with at least ten migrants in each period of the sample—migration increases by 21 percent (or 0.19 log points). Effects are stronger for BLAs involving low- and lower-middle-income origin countries, but are negligible for origin countries in Africa, likely driven by weaker institutional capacity for implementation. Our estimates imply substantial welfare gains through increased migrant earnings. Low- and lower-middle-income countries can gain US$116 million annually from a BLA with a regular destination. If countries in sub-Saharan Africa were to experience similar effects, welfare gains could be as high as US$54 million annually.