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社会孤立引发的负面情绪影响经济行为:一项自然实验研究

Social isolation induced negative emotions affect economic behavior: A natural experiment study
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Shan Jin、Tiancheng Liu、Zepeng Sun、Xiaomeng Zhang

中文摘要

社会隔离政策通常在重大公共卫生或社会危机期间实施,可能对心理健康和经济行为产生深远影响。本研究利用一次突然实施的全校范围面对面互动限制作为自然实验,考察长期隔离对年轻成年人的后果。通过被试内和被试间分析,我们发现,长时间脱离正常社会生活显著加剧了负面情绪,而负面情绪又部分中介了合作行为的下降和反社会倾向的上升。具体而言,在强制隔离八周后,合作下降了25.2%,反社会惩罚上升了86.2%。这些发现凸显了在评估隔离政策更广泛的社会影响时,纳入其心理后果的必要性。

Abstract

Social isolation policies, often implemented during major public health or social crises, can exert profound effects on both mental health and economic behavior. This study exploits an abrupt campus-wide restriction on in-person interactions as a natural experiment to examine the consequences of prolonged isolation among young adults. Using both within-subject and between-subject analyses, we find that extended separation from normal social life significantly heightens negative emotions, which in turn partially mediate a decline in cooperative behavior and a rise in antisocial tendencies. Specifically, cooperation decreased by 25.2% and antisocial punishment rose by 86.2% after eight weeks of enforced isolation. These findings highlight the necessity of accounting for the psychological consequences of isolation policies when evaluating their broader societal impacts.
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