Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Vinicius Curti Cícero", "affiliation": ["Denison University"]}, {"name": "Laura Heras Recuero", "affiliation": ["American University"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究了一场大规模外生贸易冲击——由中国于2001年加入世界贸易组织（WTO）所引发——如何重塑了巴西各地区的收入、不平等和进口行为。利用基于冲击前出口结构构建的 shift-share 工具变量，我们发现，相对于受冲击较小的地区，更多暴露于中国需求繁荣的地区经历了更快的人均收入增长，以及更大幅度的地区内部不平等上升。这些变化进而导致进口额上升和进口构成转变，尤其是转向消费品以及中高技术制成品。为分析这些转变，我们利用巴西家庭数据，按必需品和奢侈品属性对商品进行分类，并引入一种基于美国高收入家庭支出模式的补充分类。奢侈品进口在初始不平等程度较高、或冲击后不平等增长更剧烈的地区上升最多，这与非位似偏好以及分层消费的更广泛理论相一致。我们的研究结果表明，不平等是贸易冲击塑造发展中经济体地区进口需求的一个关键渠道。
• 我们利用中国加入WTO这一事件，研究贸易冲击对巴西各地区的影响。
• 贸易冲击提高了暴露程度较高地区的平均收入和不平等程度。
• 这些收益重塑了进口，提高了进口额，并将需求转向消费品和技术产品。
• 我们利用巴西和美国的数据对商品进行分类，结果表明贸易冲击推动了不平等程度较高或不平等上升地区的奢侈品进口增长。
• 不平等是贸易冲击重塑区域进口构成的中介机制。
Abstract
We study how a large, exogenous trade shock — triggered by China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 — reshaped income, inequality, and import behavior across Brazilian regions. Using a shift–share instrument based on pre-shock export structures, we show that regions more exposed to China’s demand boom experienced faster growth in per capita income and larger increases in within-region inequality relative to less exposed areas. These changes, in turn, led to rising import values and shifts in composition, especially toward consumption and medium- to high-tech manufactured goods. To analyze these shifts, we classify goods by necessity and luxury status using Brazilian household data and introduce a complementary classification based on the spending patterns of high-income households in the United States. Luxury imports rose most in regions that were initially more unequal or experienced sharper post-shock inequality growth, consistent with non-homothetic preferences and broader theories of stratified consumption. Our findings highlight inequality as a key channel through which trade shocks shape regional import demand in developing economies. • We exploit China’s WTO entry to study trade shocks across Brazilian regions. • Trade shocks raised average income and inequality in more exposed regions. • These gains reshaped imports, raising values and shifting demand toward consumption and tech goods. • We classify goods using Brazilian and U.S. data and show trade shocks drove luxury import growth in unequal or inequality-rising areas. • Inequality mediates how trade shocks reshape regional import composition.