Using free remotely sensed data to assess war-induced damage to agricultural cultivation: Evidence from Ukraine
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Klaus Deininger、Daniel Ayalew Ali、Nataliia Kussul、Андрій Шелестов、Leonid Shumilo、Guido Lemoine
中文摘要
我们使用遥感数据测量2022-2024年乌克兰约10,000个村委会（VC）因冲突造成的田地损毁。与基于媒体的指标（ACLED）相比，这些数据表明人口密度较低的村委会冲突发生率更高，这与官方数据一致。利用2019-2024年的年度作物地图，在村委会层面估计双重差分（DID）模型，结果表明冲突显著且持续地减少了直接受影响及邻近村委会的种植面积。与基于媒体的指标相比，基于影像的指标预测的冲突效应大三倍且分布不同，这表明遥感冲突指标可能有效地补充基于媒体的指标，尤其是在农村地区。
Abstract
We use remotely sensed data to measure conflict-induced field damage in Ukraine 2022-24 for about 10,000 village councils (VCs). Compared to media-based indicators (ACLED), these suggest higher conflict incidence in less densely populated VCs, consistent with official data. Use of annual crop maps for 2019-24 to estimate a difference in differences (DID) model at VC level suggests conflict significantly and persistently reduced cropped area in directly affected and neighboring VCs. Predicted conflict effects are three times larger and differently distributed for image as compared to media-based indicators, suggesting remotely sensed conflict measures may usefully complement media-based ones, especially in rural areas.