收入冲击与低薪工人的死亡率：来自巴西工资津贴的证据

Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Caio Pedro de Almeida Silva Castro", "affiliation": ["Bocconi University"]}, {"name": "Raphael Corbi", "affiliation": ["Universidade de São Paulo"]}]

中文摘要

本文利用行政数据以及一项面向低收入工人的联邦工资津贴计划发放时间的准随机性，考察收入冲击对巴西死亡率的短期影响。利用出生月份带来的支付时间差异和明确的资格截止点，我们发现，死亡率在支付当周上升了9.5%，这一效应尤其体现在与经济活动相关的死因上，如心血管疾病和外部原因。效应在金融发展水平较低、医疗可及性较差的地区最强，表明有限的消费平滑能力和延迟就医会放大死亡风险。我们的研究结果凸显了发展中国家的制度约束如何塑造可预测收入转移的健康后果，对社会保护项目的设计与发放时机具有启示意义。

Abstract

We examine the short-term impact of income shocks on mortality in Brazil using administrative data and the quasi-random timing of disbursements from a federal wage allowance program for low-income workers. Exploiting variation in payment timing by birth month and a sharp eligibility cutoff, we find that mortality increases by 9.5% during the week of payment, particularly for deaths related to economic activity such as cardiovascular conditions and external causes. Effects are strongest in areas with low financial development and poor healthcare access, suggesting that limited consumption smoothing and delayed medical care amplify mortality risks. Our findings highlight how institutional constraints in developing countries shape the health consequences of predictable income transfers, with implications for the design and timing of social protection programs.