Income Inequality and Intergenerational Mobility in Russia: Trends, Sources, and Measurement
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Kristina Butaeva、Steven N. Durlauf、Dmitry Rudenko
中文摘要
本章记录自苏联解体至2025年俄罗斯收入与不平等的趋势，依据官方统计、现有文献与住户调查微观数据。本章还综述了关于代际流动性的证据。尽管存在共识认为不平等在1990年代急剧上升，但其2000年后的轨迹仍有争议。早期的住户调查研究通常发现不平等下降，而官方统计报告的基尼系数则相对稳定。我们对俄罗斯主要住户调查的分析——按共同测量惯例进行统一调整——与基于调查的文献相一致，表明基尼系数大体上从2000年代初约0.45–0.48降至2020年代初的0.29–0.38。我们进一步发现，大部分不平等产生于地区、城乡、以及教育与职业群体内部，而非其间。家庭劳动力市场联系、地区与家庭构成解释了对数收入已解释方差中的最大份额。关于不平等的大量文献由关于代际流动性的少量文献加以补充。在此，关于后苏联各世代在教育、职业与收入方面代际动态的各类研究均得出结论：即便在剧烈结构变迁的背景下，家庭背景仍与子女的结果强烈相关。
Abstract
This chapter documents trends in income and inequality in Russia from the collapse of the Soviet Union through 2025, drawing on official statistics, the existing literature, and household survey microdata. It also reviews evidence on intergenerational mobility. While there is a consensus that inequality dramatically increased during the 1990s, its post-2000 trajectory is contested. Initial household survey studies usually found a decline, whereas official statistics reported a comparatively stable Gini coefficient. Our analysis of Russia's major household surveys, harmonized using common measurement conventions, aligns with the survey-based literature, indicating that the Gini coefficient generally fell from approximately 0.45–0.48 in the early 2000s to 0.29–0.38 in the early 2020s. We further find that most inequality arises within rather than between regions, urban and rural areas, and education and occupation groups. Household labor-market attachment, region, and household composition account for the largest shares of the explained variance in log income. The large literature on inequality is complemented by a small literature on intergenerational mobility. Here, the various studies on intergenerational dynamics in education, occupation, and income across post-Soviet cohorts conclude that, even against the background of dramatic structural changes, family background remains strongly associated with children’s outcomes.