医疗技术与预期寿命：来自白喉抗毒素治疗的证据
Medical Technology and Life Expectancy: Evidence from the Antitoxin Treatment of Diphtheria
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · [{"name": "Philipp Ager", "affiliation": ["University of Mannheim"]}, {"name": "C Pilebaek Hansen", "affiliation": ["University of Copenhagen", "Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Peter Z. Lin", "affiliation": ["Western Kentucky University"]}]
中文摘要
我们考察白喉抗毒素的免费供给对马萨诸塞州历史健康转型的影响；白喉抗毒素是首个针对传染病的有效医学治疗方法。利用新收集的市镇层面抗毒素分发数据，以及 1880 年至 1914 年超过 150 万份死亡证明所包含的信息，我们发现抗毒素治疗的快速可及性显著提高了低龄人群的预期寿命。我们的发现表明，与以往认识相比，医学与有效的公共卫生政策相结合，在二十世纪初提高预期寿命方面发挥了更为重要的作用。（JEL H75, I12, I18, J13, N31）
Abstract
We examine the impact of the free supply of diphtheria antitoxin, the first effective medical treatment for an infectious disease, on the historical health transition in Massachusetts. Using newly collected municipality-level data on the distribution of antitoxin and information from over 1.5 million death certificates from 1880 to 1914, we find that the rapid availability of antitoxin treatment significantly increased life expectancy at young ages. Our findings suggest that medicine, combined with an effective public health policy, played a more important role in improving life expectancy in the early twentieth century than previously thought. (JEL H75, I12, I18, J13, N31)