被剩下还是主动退出？中国婚姻市场中的挤压、错配与剩余
Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Pauline Rossi", "affiliation": ["École Polytechnique", "Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique", "Institut Polytechnique de Paris"]}, {"name": "Yun Xiao", "affiliation": ["University of Gothenburg"]}]
中文摘要
中国的婚姻正在减少。在单身人群中，2019年结婚的概率是1999年的一半。我们使用人口普查数据估计Choo和Siow（2006b）模型，以量化人口结构变化与婚姻剩余（即婚姻价值）变化各自的相对作用。我们发现，受教育人群供给的增加解释了下降的一半，部分原因是高学历女性与低学历男性之间存在错配。女性相对于男性比例的恶化（即所谓“婚姻挤压”）为男性额外解释了13%的下降。婚姻剩余的下降解释了剩余部分。
• 我们研究1999年至2019年间中国婚姻下降的主要驱动因素。
• 我们使用人口普查数据估计Choo和Siow模型，并计算反事实结果。
• 受教育男性和女性供给的变化解释了下降的一半。
• 女性相对于男性比例的恶化为男性额外解释了13%的下降。
• 婚姻剩余（婚姻价值）的下降解释了剩余部分。
Abstract
Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder. • We study the main drivers of the decline in marriage in China between 1999 and 2019. • We estimate a Choo and Siow model using census data and compute counterfactuals. • Changes in the supply of educated men and women explains half of the decline. • The deterioration of female-to-male ratio explains an additional 13% for men. • A decrease in marital surplus (the value of marriage) accounts for the remainder.